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| Last Week in Review:It was a volatile week in the markets. Fi nd out what happened to home loan rates.
Forecast for the Week:This week's calendar is jam-packed, with news on inflation, manufacturing, retail sales, and more.
View:Have any clients or colleagues doing back-to-school shopping? Or in the market for electronics yourself? Read (and pass on) the great tips below. | |
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| "Where do we go from here?" - Alicia Keys. And after a volatile week in the markets, you may be wondering where Bonds and home loan rates go from here. Read on for details.
 There were only two economic reports released last week, and the news from them was mixed. Productivity rose 1.6% in the 2nd quarter of 2012. Higher productivity signals that companies are squeezing more out of their current employees and may not add workers, which could slow job growth. There was a bit of good news on the labor front, though, as Initial Jobless Claims came in below expectations, declining to 361,000.
Also of note, the Fed's Eric Rosengren stated that the current U.S. economic outlook calls for another round of Bond buying (known as Quantitative Easing, or QE3). Remember that once an official announcement about QE3 is made, Bonds and home loan rates could suffer as Stocks would likely rally.
So where do Bonds and home loan rates go from here? While Bonds and home loan rates worsened last week due to some optimism out of Europe and a better than expected Jobs Report for July, there are many reasons why Bonds and home loan rates should have better weeks ahead. There is evidence of a weakening economy here in the U.S. For example, the expectations component of the University of Michig an Consumer Sentiment Report came in at 65.6 in July, the lowest reading of 2012.
In addition, the ongoing problems in Europe and the upcoming election this fall will bring uncertainty...and Bonds (and therefore home loan rates, which are tied to Mortgage Bonds) typically benefit from uncertainty, as investors see Bonds as a safe haven for their money. Technical trading levels will also be an important factor to watch closely in determining what happens next with Stocks, Bonds, and home loan rates.
The bottom line is that now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients. | |
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| The markets will have a lot to chew on this week, especially given the packed economi c calendar.
- On Tuesday, we will be able to gauge how the consumer is holding up when Retail Sales are released.
- On the inflation front, the Producer Price Index (or wholesale inflation) will also be delivered on Tuesday, while the Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday.
- Over in the manufacturing sector, the Empire State Index will be reported on Wednesday with the Philly Fed Index set to be released on Thursday.
- Housing Starts and Building Permits will be closely watched when the data is reported on Thursday.
- Also on Thursday, we'll get another read on weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
- Last but not least, Consumer Sentiment will be reported on Friday.
In addition, Stock movements will be watched closely. If Stocks continue to rise, it could keep pushing the Bond markets lower--and, in turn, push home loan rates higher.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
To go one step further a red candle means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green candle means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continued to move from their record levels, but still remain near historic bests. I'll continu e to monitor their movement closely.
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| How to Save on Back-to-School Electronics
Follow these six tips to cut costs on computers, phones and other devices for students.
By Cameron Huddleston, Kiplinger.com
Among the most-expensive items on many families' back-to-school shopping lists are electronics, such as computers, tablets, MP3 players and smart phones. According to a National Retail Federation survey, families are expected to spend about $218, on average, on these items during the back-to-school shopping season this year.
That might cover the cost of smaller items, such as phones, but families will have to shell out more if they want to buy laptop computers or certain tablets.
However, there are ways to keep the cost of electronics under control. Jon Rettinger, president of gadget review site TechnoBuffalo, offers these tips:
Shop online. Shopping online makes it easy to compare prices from several retailers. And there are plenty of sites that do the bargain hunting for you by scouring the Web for the best deals. Our favorite deal site, dealnews.com, has a page devoted to the best computer deals. Other sites that feature deals on computers and other tech items include MacMall.com (Apple products), Offers.com, Shopping.com and Shopzilla.com.
Monitor daily deals. You can find deeply discounted computers and other items on daily deal sites that specialize in tech products, such as RedTag.com and Woot.com. These sites feature just one product a day, but both offer e-mail alerts so that you don't have to monitor the sites each day.
Set up price alerts. If you want to buy a particular tech produ ct (not just the lowest-price computer, for example), sign up for price alerts so that you can receive an e-mail when the price on that product changes. There are a number of price alert sites that track electronics, such as Gazaro, PriceSpider and PricePinx.
Buy refurbished. You can save a lot by purchasing refurbished tech items, which are used but restored to like-new condition and usually have a one-year warranty. Among the sites where your can find refurbished computers, tablets and other products are Apple.com, BestBuy.com, CompUSA.com, Dell.com, Newegg.com and Walmart.com.
Take advantage of trade-in programs. One way to pay less for a new tech item is to trade in a used item. A number of retailers, including Best Buy, Circuit City and Radio Shack, have trade-in programs that offer cash, a gift card or credit for the value of a used item that can be applied toward the purchase of a new item.
Avoid extras. Just say no to tech support and retailers' extended warranties, Rettinger says. Your credit card might offer an extended warranty (see How Credit Cards' Extended Warranty Coverage Stacks Up). Or Rettinger suggests buying extended warranty coverage through SquareTrade.com, which offers warranties 40% to 60% cheaper than retailers' warranties. Another extra that he says to avoid is Microsoft Office Home & Student edition ($120) because you can use Google Docs for free.
Reprinted with permission. All Contents 2012 The Kiplinger Washington Editors. Kiplinger.com.
Economic Calendar for the Week of August 13 - August 17
Date
|
ET
|
Economic Report
|
For
|
Estimate
|
Actual
|
Prior
|
Impact
|
| Tue. August 14 |
08:30
| Retail Sales |
Jul
|
NA
|
|
-0.5%
|
HIGH
|
| Tue. August 14 |
08:30
| Retail Sales ex-auto |
Jul
|
NA
|
|
-0.4%
|
HIGH
|
| Tue. August 14 |
08:30
| Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jul
|
NA
|
|
0.1%
|
Moderate
|
| Tue. August 14 |
08:30
| Core Producer Price Index (PPI) |
Jul
|
NA
|
|
0.2%
|
Moderate
|
| Wed. August 15 |
08:30
| Empire State Index |
Aug
|
NA
|
|
7.4
|
Moderate
|
| Wed. August 15 |
08:30
| Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Jul
|
NA
|
|
0.2%
|
HIGH
|
| Wed. August 15 |
08:30
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Jul
|
NA
|
|
0.0%
|
HIGH
|
| Thu. August 16 |
08:30
| Jobless Claims (Initial) |
8/11
|
NA
|
|
NA
|
Moderate
|
| Thu. August 16 |
08:30
| Housing Starts |
Jul
|
NA
|
</ td>
|
760K
|
Moderate
|
| Thu. August 16 |
08:30
| Building Permits |
Jul
|
NA
|
|
755K
|
Moderate
|
| Thu. August 16 |
10:00
| Philadelphia Fed Index |
Aug
|
NA
|
|
-12.9
|
HIGH
|
| Fri. August 17 |
10:00
| Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) |
Aug
|
NA
|
|
72.3
|
Moderate
|
|
|
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